Wednesday, 18 September, 2019

India-Pakistan Tensions & Case of Nuclear War?


By Sajjad Shaukat

Since Indian extremist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration revoked special status of the Jummu and Kashmir on August 5, this year after scrapping articles 35A and 370 of the Constitution in a malevolent attempt to turn Muslim majority into minority in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), India authorities have continued lockdown and curfew in the large parts of that region. Indian forces also martyred many people by accelerated firing at the stones-pelting Kashmiris who are protesting against Indian illegal actions.

New Delhi has also ignored international pressure and is not willing to withdraw the controversial articles regarding the Indian Held Kashmir. In these drastic circumstances, tensions between India and Pakistan are rapidly escalating, though world’s major powers, especially America are making efforts to defuse the ongoing war-like situation between the two neighbouring nuclear countries.

With the intensification of firing by the Indian Army across the Line of Control (LoC), which has been targeting the innocent civilians in Pakistani side of Kashmir, including Pakistan Army which has been compelled to give a matching response to Indian forces, tension has further increased between the two countries. However, both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers. Hence, alarming situation at the LoC has raised the question, does India wants nuclear war?

Meanwhile, Indian Defence Rajnath Singh on August 16, this year threatened Pakistan with nuclear war. In this regard, Singh wrote on his Twitter: “Pokhran is the area which witnessed Atal Ji’s firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly committed to the doctrine of ‘No First Use’. India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. What happens in future depends on the circumstances.”

On the other side, addressing a press conference on August 17, 2019 along with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, DG of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Maj- Gen. Asif Ghafoor said that Pakistan Army was “ready to defend the country from any misadventure from India. Pakistan is a responsible state, but India has always threatened us. Responsible states do not make statements like Rajnath’s…more troops are being sent to the Line of Control (LoC) as deterrence”.

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi who repeatedly condemned the statement of the Indian defence minister stated: “Pakistan is keeping a close eye on the evolving situation in the occupied Kashmir and also warned “the international community that India can carry out any false flag operation near the Line of Control to divert world attention from its illegal actions and human rights violations in Kashmir…we have doubts on the Indian intent and actions”.

On twitter, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan pointed out on August 18, this year: “The world must seriously consider the safety and the security of India’s arsenal in the control of Modi Govt. amid India’s pledge to review its nuclear doctrine. This is an issue that impacts not just the region, but the world.”

Comparing Indian premier with Hitler and ruling parties BJP and RSS with Germany’s Nazi party, Prime Minister Khan made it clear that his country’s troops and people are ready to fight India until the end.

Earlier on August 15, this year, Prime Minister Imran Khan has warned the international community of “severe repercussions and reactions”, if they “silently witness another Srebrenica-type massacre & ethnic cleansing of Muslims in IOK…If war breaks out in the region, the world powers and international bodies will be responsible as they have failed to implement the UN resolutions on Kashmir…[which] remains a nuclear flashpoint in the South Asian region. Pakistan doesn’t want war in the region as military confrontation between the two nuclear-tipped hostile neighbours would spiral out of control and the result would be apocalyptic not just for the region but the whole world.”

It is notable that besides obtaining atomic weapons from the US and other Western countries, New Delhi is, clandestinely, importing nuclear arms and components from Israel. In this connection, Zionist-led Indo-Israeli secret diplomacy could be assessed from the interview of Israel’s ambassador to India, Mark Sofer, published in the Indian weekly Outlook on February 18, 2008. Regarding India’s defense arrangements with Tel Aviv, Sofer had surprisingly revealed: “We do have a defense relationship with India, and “with all due respect, the secret part will remain a secret.”

Although Weapons of Mass Destructions (WMDs) which also include atomic weapons seem to be mysterious, yet still could be within the reach of some Hindu terrorists with the help of Indian RAW which might have also got these destructive arms from the Israeli Mossad. Such atomic weapons or radiological materials could have also been smuggled inside India by the Hindu fanatics with the covert assistance of RAW.

Frustrated in isolating Pakistan, RAW in connivance with Mossad might have prepared a most dangerous plan to use WMDs or nuclear weapons or dirty nuclear bombs inside the US homeland or any major European country to implicate Pakistan for having allegedly used these weapons through some militants. Thus, RAW could create a dangerous misunderstanding in which US could use small nuclear weapons against Pakistan or could ask the latter to rollback its atomic programme.

It is mentionable that BJP leader Dr. Subramaniam Swami had stated on July 12, 2014 that India needed only two years to defeat Pakistan militarily, and the only solution of Kashmir was war, as “there is no peaceful, democratic solution.”

However, it is wishful thinking of the BJP leader and the Indian defence minister that India can defeat Pakistan through atomic war. While, both the adversaries are nuclear powers, New Delhi has been ignoring the principles of deterrence, popularly known as balance of terror.

After the World War 11, nuclear weapons were never used, and were only employed as a strategic threat. During the heightened days of the Cold War, many crises arose in Suez Canal, Korea, Cuba and Vietnam when the US and the former Soviet Union were willing to use atomic weapons, but they stopped because of the fear of nuclear war which could eliminate both the super powers. Therefore, the two rivals preferred to resolve their differences through diplomacy.

Similarly, many occasions came between Pakistan and India, during Kargil crisis of 1998, and Indian parliament’s attack by the militants in 2001, and particularly in 2008, in the post-Mumbai terror attacks when New Delhi started a blame game against Islamabad in wake of its highly provocative actions like mobilization of troops. Pakistan had also taken defensive steps to meet any prospective aggression or surgical strikes by India. But, India failed in implementing its aggressive designs, because Pakistan also possesses atomic weapons.

Political strategists agree that deterrence is a psychological concept which aims to affect an opponent’s perceptions. In nuclear deterrence, weapons are less usable, as their threat is enough in deterring an enemy who intends to use its armed might. In this context, a renowned scholar, Hotzendorf remarks that nuclear force best serves the interests of a state when it deters an attack.

In the present circumstances, BJP-led government of Modi is badly mistaken, if it overestimates India’s power and underestimates Pakistan’s power. A prolonged conventional conflict between them could culminate into nuclear war, resulting into the political suicide of both the countries.

In the past too, Indian rulers had intended to employ their doctrine of limited war in Kashmir or to fight a conventional war with Pakistan, but they could not do so owing to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

Unlike the former Soviet Union and the USA, war-like situation exists between New Delhi and Islamabad due to the perennial firing by the Indian forces across the LoC and in wake of the unresolved issue of Kashmir.

It is worth-mentioning that at present, fanatic leaders are in power in the US, India and Israel and they are in collaboration against the Muslims, Islamic World, Russia and China. And it is also part of Zionist agenda to ‘denuclearize Pakistan’, as she is the only nuclear country in the Muslim World.

Notably, Israel does not want the two-state settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue and will prefer atomic war between the US and Russia. Likewise, in order to avoid the solution of Kashmir dispute and in failure to suppress the war of liberation in the occupied Kashmir, extremist Prime Minister Modi can take the risk of nuclear war with Pakistan.

So, in wake of India’s war-like threats, creation of war hysteria and jingoism among the Hindus against Pakistan, the Muslims in India and the Indian Controlled Kashmir, danger of nuclear war remains between the two neighbouring countries. Therefore, the US-led Western powers must take serious notice of the Indian irresponsible actions.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad­_logic @yahoo.com

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